《读懂中国经济：格局、周期与趋势》赵硕刚 / 清华大学出版社 / 2022

近年来，中国经济正发生着显著而深刻的变化，中国经济发展已经站在了一个新的历史方位上。系统全面地解读中国经济，有助于我们更好地理解、认识并展望中国经济的“过去”“现在”以及“未来”。 本书共分为三个部分： 第一篇从经济格局角度，通过对主要经济指标的解读，系统性地认识中国经济的基本面以及国民经济循环的基本状况，总结新冠肺炎疫情前后中国经济的突出变化和主要特征。 第二篇从经济周期角度，基于常见的经济周期类型，介绍中国经济周期性波动的表现、成因以及影响，分析当前中国经济运行所处的周期位置，展望“十四五”时期中国经济的增长前景。 第三篇从长期趋势角度，根据各国经济增长的历史经验，分析中国长期经济增长的变化以及经济结构的变迁规律，勾勒出2035年远景目标下的中国经济增长趋势。

赵硕刚，国家信息中心经济预测部世界经济研究室副主任，经济学博士，主要从事世界经济、中国经济等领域的研究，近年来承担了多项国家社科基金以及国家发改委、财政部、商务部等项目的研究工作，在《宏观经济管理》《国际贸易》《红旗文稿》《瞭望》《经济日报》《上海证券报》《中国证券报》等刊物、报纸和媒体上发表学术论文数十篇，曾获国家发改委中青年干部论坛优秀奖、国家信息中心优秀研究成果一等奖。

第一篇 中国经济运行的格局
第一章 研判中国宏观经济的框架和指标 ···················································2
一、宏观经济如何运转 ··········································································2
二、常用的中国宏观经济指标··································································5
第二章 GDP—综合测度中国经济 ·························································8
一、GDP如何统计 ···············································································8
二、中国GDP的规模、增速与结构 ························································10
三、容易混淆的GDP与GNI ·································································15
第三章 三大产业—认清中国经济的供给侧 ············································19
一、国民经济行业如何划分 ··································································19
二、稳定中国经济基本盘的第一产业 ·······················································21
三、第二产业成就中国全球制造业大国地位 ··············································26
四、成长中的服务业 ···········································································37
五、观察行业是否景气—采购经理指数（PMI） ······································48
第四章 三大需求—读懂中国经济的需求侧 ············································54
一、14亿人口汇聚起的消费力量 ····························································54
二、投资—中国经济增长中的“关键先生” ···········································64
三、认识全球第一贸易大国的进出口 ·······················································77
读懂中国经济
格局、周期与趋势
VIII
第五章 价格—观察中国经济的通胀水平 ···············································91
一、衡量社会总体价格水平的GDP平减指数·············································91
二、与日常生活息息相关的居民消费品价格 ··············································95
三、影响企业生产经营的工业生产者价格 ················································100
第六章 就业—关注中国经济的最大民生 ·············································104
一、就业情况的整体衡量 ····································································104
二、经济增长创造的城镇新增就业机会 ···················································107
三、反映劳动力闲置状况的指标—失业率 ·············································109
四、求人倍率与工资—衡量劳动力市场的供需情况 ·································111
五、城乡“二元”结构下的农民工就业 ···················································112
第七章 财政收支—看清政府的财政政策 ·············································114
一、“四本预算”揭示财政收支路径 ······················································114
二、从财政赤字变化观察财政风险 ·························································126
三、分税制下的地方政府债务问题 ·························································128
第八章 货币调控—理解央行的货币政策 ·············································134
一、货币政策的目标与工具 ·································································134
二、我国的货币政策转型 ····································································138
三、人民币汇率的决定 ·······································································148
第一篇小结 后疫情时代中国经济的基本特征 ··········································153
一、中国经济的基本格局 ····································································153
二、后疫情时代中国经济的基本特征 ······················································155
三、疫情“后遗症”带给中国经济的新挑战 ·············································158
第二篇
中国经济波动的周期
第九章 经济周期分析框架和中国经济增长的周期波动 ·······························162
一、什么是经济周期 ··········································································162
目 录
IX
二、如何划分经济周期的阶段·······························································163
三、几种常见的经济周期 ····································································168
四、中国经济运行中的周期波动 ····························································171
第十章 农业周期—农产品供给和价格的规律性波动 ·······························175
一、气候变化与农作物生产 ·································································175
二、中国的猪周期波动 ·······································································180
第十一章 创新周期—科技革命和产业变革的发生规律 ····························186
一、科技和产业革命与创新周期 ····························································186
二、中国经济运行中的创新周期 ····························································195
三、创新周期下的能源转型 ·································································196
第十二章 房地产周期—房地产波动背后的驱动因素 ·······························199
一、人口与房地产周期 ·······································································199
二、人口因素影响下的中国房地产长周期 ················································203
三、房地产调控与房地产短周期波动 ······················································205
第十三章 设备投资周期—设备投资如何影响经济增长 ····························214
一、设备更新与设备投资周期·······························································214
二、中国的设备投资周期 ····································································217
第十四章 库存周期—存货变化与工业品价格短期波动 ····························224
一、企业存货管理与库存周期·······························································224
二、中国的库存周期 ··········································································226
三、库存周期与工业品价格、资源类周期股走势 ·······································231
第十五章 金融周期—流动性改变如何引发房价共振 ·······························235
一、信贷、资产价格与金融周期 ····························································235
二、中国的金融周期 ··········································································238
三、金融周期下的资产价格波动 ····························································247
读懂中国经济
格局、周期与趋势
第二篇小结 经济周期视角下的“十四五”时期中国经济走势 ······················249
一、中国经济运行的周期规律·······························································249
二、“十四五”时期中国经济的走势 ······················································252
三、防范化解影响我国经济平稳运行的内外部风险 ····································255
第三篇
中国经济增长的趋势
第十六章 经济增长的规律和动力机制 ···················································258
一、经济增长的一般规律 ····································································258
二、经济增长背后的动力机制·······························································261
第十七章 经济增长的不同阶段 ····························································266
一、经济增长阶段的划分 ····································································266
二、中国经济增长的二元经济阶段 ·························································270
第十八章 经济增长的动力分解 ····························································282
一、经济增长因素分解 ·······································································282
二、改革开放以来中国经济增长的动力 ···················································285
第十九章 经济增长中的产业结构变迁 ···················································296
一、经济增长过程中的产业结构演变 ······················································296
二、要素禀赋如何决定主导产业的发展 ···················································301
三、未来中国的产业发展之路·······························································307
第二十章 经济增长中的需求结构演变 ···················································316
一、经济增长过程中的需求结构变化 ······················································316
二、消费结构的长期变化规律·······························································321
三、消费升级与产业结构的调整 ····························································334
第二十一章 经济增长中的城乡结构变化 ················································337
一、城市化率的“S”形变化规律 ··························································337
目 录
二、中国改革开放以来的城镇化进程 ······················································339
三、城镇化与基础设施、住房投资前景 ···················································343
四、城镇化与未来的城市竞争·······························································348
第二十二章 经济增长中的收入分配结构变化 ··········································351
一、要素收入分配结构的变化规律 ·························································351
二、改革开放以来中国的要素收入分配结构演变 ·······································353
三、个人收入分配结构如何演变 ····························································355
四、中国的个人收入分配变化与壮大中等收入群体 ····································357
第二十三章 经济增长中的跨境贸易投资变化 ··········································362
一、对外贸易结构的变化规律·······························································362
二、中国从贸易大国走向贸易强国 ·························································367
三、跨境直接投资的变化规律·······························································372
四、中国直接投资从“引进来”到“走出去” ··········································374
第三篇小结 2035年远景目标下的中国经济增长 ······································380
一、定位长期经济增长中的中国经济 ······················································380
二、2035年远景目标下的中国经济增长 ··················································383
三、如何保障翻番目标的实现·······························································394
后记 ·······························································································399